The stock market soared to unprecedented heights on Thursday, fueled by investor optimism over the federal budget’s decision to maintain the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) status quo for the fiscal year 2024-25. Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark, the KSE-100 Shares Index, surged to a record high of 76,208.16 points, marking a historic single-day gain of 3,410.73 points or 4.69%.
“The market had anticipated an increase in capital gains tax, leading investors to significantly reduce their exposure,” said Adnan Sheikh, Assistant Vice President of Pak Kuwait Investment Co, speaking to Reuters.
Following the budget announcement and Monday’s 150 basis points cut in the central bank’s policy rate, Sheikh anticipated a record-setting day for the market, citing equities as the best medium-term investment option.
In addition to the capital gains tax, analysts noted that the budget and other revenue measures were in line with expectations.
The market rally sparked widespread buying interest across top sectors, including automobile assemblers, cement, commercial banks, engineering, oil and gas marketing companies (OMCs), and refineries.
The euphoria in the market came a day after Finance Minister Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb presented Pakistan’s federal budget for 2024-25, which aims to increase tax revenue to Rs13 trillion for the fiscal year starting July 1, a nearly 40% increase from the current year.
The budget is intended to achieve modest 3.6% growth, balancing the need to satisfy the International Monetary Fund (IMF) while addressing the nation’s fiscal challenges through increased taxation.
“We believe this budget will serve as a prior action for a new IMF programme,” Topline Securities stated in a note.
If parliament passes the budget in compliance with IMF measures, Topline Securities expects the forward price-to-earnings ratio to increase to 6.93 in three years, up from the current 3.4, a historic high.
Pakistan’s international sovereign bonds also rallied, with longer-dated maturities seeing significant gains. The 2036 bond recorded its largest increase in over two months, trading at just over 77 cents on the dollar, according to Tradeweb data.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb defended the decision to increase tax revenue, stating that the current tax-to-GDP ratio of just under 10% was unsustainable.
Key objectives for the upcoming fiscal year include gradually increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13% over the next three years, Aurangzeb added during a press conference following the budget presentation in parliament.
