Operations are now on pause after a ceasefire brought escalating hostilities between India and Pakistan to a standstill over the weekend, although the situation remains tense. There have been claims and counterclaims, especially around the air war and possible shootdowns, as well as speculation about the targets of the many airstrikes by both sides. Overall, the information space has been extremely murky, with contradictory reports from official channels and rampant speculation across social media. One of the most alarming claims is that India targeted a nuclear facility in Pakistan, claims that New Delhi has refuted.
Unconfirmed reports had suggested that India’s targets included the nuclear facility at Kirana Hills, in the mountainous Sargodha district of Punjab, Pakistan. The site has been used in the past for nuclear testing and, according to Indian accounts, today serves as a nuclear weapons storage site connected to the adjacent Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Base Mushaf. Allegedly, a combination of loitering munitions and penetrating weapons was used to target the hardened facility.
In a press conference today, the Director General of Air Operations for the Indian Air Force (IAF), Air Marshal A.K. Bharti, denied any Indian attack on Kirana Hills.
“Thank you for telling us that Kirana Hills houses some nuclear installation,” Bharti said, in response to a question on the topic. “We did not know about it. And we have not hit Kirana Hills, whatever is there.”
At a press briefing on Sunday, Bharti had presented a list of targets that he said Indian forces did hit, including Pakistani air defense radars, airfields, and other military installations, providing visual evidence to back up his claims.
There have been unverified claims that airstrikes destroyed a PAF Saab 2000 Erieye airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft on the ground at PAF Base Bholari, although there is no evidence to support this. The claims may have originated in reports that a high-ranking member of the squadron operating that aircraft was killed during an air raid on the base. Pakistani media reported the death of Squadron Leader Usman Yousaf, together with four other people, said to be the result of an Indian missile attack a few hours before the ceasefire was agreed.
The Indian attacks were in response to what New Delhi says were attempts by Pakistan to target no fewer than 26 Indian locations, including air bases in Udhampur, Pathankot, and Adampur, on the night of May 9-10.
Prior to that, on the night of May 7-8, the IAF had launched Operation Sindoor, with attacks it says hit nine targets that it described as “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and on Pakistan’s side of the disputed Kashmir region.
Indian military spokespersons said that the targets belonged to two Islamist militant groups: Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). New Delhi said it launched this operation as retaliation for the deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last month. That attack, in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, killed 26 people, mostly tourists.
Pakistan acknowledged that six locations on its territory were targeted in Operation Sindoor but claimed that none of them were militant camps. A Pakistan military spokesperson said that at least 26 civilians were killed and 46 injured in the strikes. In a statement, JeM said that 10 relatives of its leader, Masood Azhar, were killed in an Indian strike.
After trading these various blows, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between the two countries on Saturday, pulling the two nuclear-armed nations back from the brink of possible full-scale war. The ceasefire includes a bilateral agreement to stop military operations across land, air, and sea domains. With the situation rapidly escalating, it is very likely that both sides were looking for an off-ramp.
In comments today, Trump said that the United States has “stopped a nuclear conflict” by intervening with India and Pakistan. He said, “I think it could have been a bad nuclear war. Millions of people could have been killed. So I’m very proud of that.”
In contrast to Pakistani officials, who heralded the U.S. role in brokering the ceasefire, Modi said that the cessation of hostilities came after Pakistan reached out to India’s head of military operations. The Indian prime minister also accused Pakistan of “nuclear blackmailing,” saying that this would not be tolerated in any future conflict between the two countries.
Both countries have suggested that they could be open to further negotiations, although they also have their own conditions.
Modi said today that “if we talk to Pakistan, it will be about terrorism only … it will be about Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.”
Also today, Pakistani security officials said that the terms of the ceasefire included an agreement that future talks would be held in a third country, with one suggestion being the United Arab Emirates.
So far, it seems, the ceasefire has continued to hold.
There have been no confirmed reports of renewed shelling or other exchanges of fire across the disputed border dividing Kashmir between India and Pakistan.
“The night remained largely peaceful across Jammu and Kashmir, and other areas along the international border,” the Indian Army said in a statement on Sunday night.
After a phone call between military officials from India and Pakistan, both sides have also agreed to reduce their troop presence at the border. Meanwhile, explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) teams are working to defuse unexploded munitions in Indian-administered Kashmir, while tens of thousands of people who had been evacuated from their villages in border areas are returning home.
With the pause in hostilities, the two sides have been making claims about their alleged military successes.
“All our military bases and systems continue to remain fully operational and ready to undertake any mission,” the IAF’s Air Marshal Bharti said today.
“Another highlight was the stellar performance of indigenous air defense weapons like the Akash system,” Bharti added, in reference to the domestically produced surface-to-air missile system.
With one senior Pakistani security source having described to CNN a huge air battle involving 125 jets, fighting for over an hour, it’s not surprising that there have been flurries of claims and counterclaims about what exactly happened and who came out on top.
There has also been a steady flow of new imagery posted to social media, together with claims, frequently unsubstantiated, about the respective nations’ losses, especially in the air war. With so much propaganda circulating and information operations ongoing, all open-source imagery has to be taken as unconfirmed.
One video appears to provide a better view of the engine from one of the IAF’s French-made combat jets, now widely interpreted to be one of the two M88 turbofans from a Rafale. Previous imagery, likely from the same crash site, purports to show parts of a Rafale’s tailfin and rudder lying in a field, said to be in Bathinda, Punjab. The wreckage bears the serial number BS-001, which would identify it as the first single-seat Rafale EH to be delivered to the IAF. Additional unverified imagery purports to show the remains of the downed Rafale being recovered by the Indian military.
Pakistani security sources have posted claims of five IAF fighters shot down, including three Rafales. So far, there are reports of one Rafale shootdown confirmed by a high-ranking French intelligence official, speaking to CNN, with French authorities meanwhile looking into possible further Rafale losses.
Another video, which began to circulate widely over the weekend, shows the remains of another engine, apparently from a Russian-made IAF fighter. The engine in the video appears to be an RD-33 series turbofan as used in the MiG-29 Fulcrum. Notably, a single MiG-29 is among the claims of IAF jets downed by the PAF, as well as one Russian-made Su-30MKI Flanker. However, the PAF’s JF-17 uses a derivative of the same engine, the RD-93, so that possibility cannot be ruled out.
With aircraft remaining in their respective airspaces and lobbing air-to-air missiles at each other from long distances, at least according to official accounts, it’s also not surprising that more examples of these weapons have been located as well.
Further examples of the Chinese-made PL-15 air-to-air missile, which arms the PAF’s JF-17 and J-10, and which you can read about in more detail here, have appeared.
On the Indian side, imagery shows evidence of Israeli-made Derby ER and Python 5 missiles, although it should be noted that these could be air-to-air missiles from an IAF Tejas fighter, or they could originate from an Indian SPYDER surface-to-air missiles system, which uses the same types of effector. You can read more about these and other air-to-air missiles used by both India and Pakistan in our previous review of the topic, here.
India also made extensive use of other Israeli-supplied equipment, in the form of significant numbers of drones launched toward Pakistan.
The wreckage of another IAF munition, the SCALP EG air-launched cruise missile, which arms the Rafale, has also appeared in recent imagery. It’s not clear if the weapon was successfully intercepted by Pakistani air defenses or if it suffered some kind of malfunction, but the warhead appears to be still intact.
Further evidence of India’s use of its BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles has also emerged. Also known by the designation PJ-10, this ramjet-powered weapon was developed and manufactured as a collaborative effort between India and Russia. The BrahMos is available in ground-launched, air-launched, sub-launched, and ship-launched versions, and the missile has a reported range of between 300-500 kilometers (186-311 miles).
Ominously, Modi has said that his country’s military has only “paused” its actions against Pakistan and would “retaliate on its own terms” to any further attacks. The Indian leader added that he was “monitoring every step of Pakistan.”
While a ceasefire might be holding for now, the stakes are as high as ever. But at least both sides chose to take the off-ramp before things escalated further.
