AFTER the cessation of hostilities following Saturday’s US-brokered ceasefire, it will take time, effort and political will to rebuild trust between Pakistan and India.
Though US President Donald Trump suggested that both states “go out and have a nice dinner together”, a dinner date is unlikely to melt away nearly eight decades of mistrust and animosity. Moreover, the Indian prime minister’s combative rhetoric in the speech to his nation on Monday also indicates that New Delhi will take a more hawkish line towards Islamabad.
Narendra Modi said that a “new normal” had been established, which entailed India taking military action against so-called terrorist targets in Pakistan. Mr Modi’s bellicosity seems to stem from rising domestic criticism, particularly over American involvement in de-escalation efforts. It is hoped that better sense prevails, as this Indian strategy is a recipe for disaster, and will lead South Asia into a destructive cycle of violence.
Whether it is with the help of foreign interlocutors — which the Indians oppose — or through bilateral channels, both states will have to restart the dialogue process, if perpetual conflict is to be avoided. PM Modi said that dialogue with Pakistan will only focus on terrorism and Azad Kashmir. If these are India’s main talking points, then it should be prepared to discuss all forms of terrorism in South Asia, including attempts by New Delhi to destabilise Pakistan through acts of terrorism.
Moreover, the talks should not remain limited to Azad Kashmir and should in fact include discussions on the entire internationally disputed territory. The Indian political class has taken umbrage at Donald Trump’s efforts to broker peace, with leaders saying that all disputes must be resolved under the umbrella of bilateralism, with many citing the 1972 Simla accord as the main blueprint for managing Pakistan-Indian relations.
If Simla — signed between Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Indira Gandhi — is the yardstick, then India should remember that the agreement says, in black and white, that pending the final settlement of bilateral disputes, “neither side shall alter the situation”.
The BJP government’s unilateral scrapping of Article 370 in held Kashmir has significantly altered the situation. Moreover, the Simla accord also foresees “a final settlement of Jammu and Kashmir”. Pakistan has been consistently calling for Kashmir to be discussed, but the BJP regime is not interested in talking about the dispute.
Instead of a ‘new normal’ that sows the seeds of mutually assured destruction, forward thinking is needed to resolve Pakistan-India disputes. As matters cool down, small steps should be taken to rebuild confidence, and establish a less bellicose discourse.
One major step India can take would be to honour the Indus Waters Treaty, as Pakistan cannot afford to have its rightful share of water blocked.
