In a volatile region where political tensions often override shared realities, the unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India marks not just a diplomatic rupture—it is a direct threat to Pakistan’s survival. For a country already grappling with water scarcity, erratic weather patterns, and shrinking natural reservoirs, water is not just a resource; it is the very foundation of national security.
Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty allocated the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—to Pakistan, and the eastern rivers to India. Despite wars and hostilities, the treaty withstood the test of time for 65 years, serving as a model of water diplomacy in a conflict-prone region. Its abrupt suspension, therefore, not only sets a dangerous precedent but also removes one of the few stabilizing mechanisms between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
India’s move is not isolated—it comes amid a pattern of increasingly aggressive and unilateral actions by New Delhi, from the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir to cross-border military posturing. According to Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri, Executive Director of SDPI, “India is not just testing Pakistan’s resolve, but challenging the international legal order by walking away from one of the most successful transboundary water agreements.”
In a recent commentary, Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri warned that India’s approach reflects a strategic shift where water is being used as a tool of pressure rather than a shared resource. “The danger is not just the drying up of rivers,” he observed, “but the drying up of trust and the space for peace.”
Pakistan’s National Security Committee has rightly termed water a “vital national interest,” asserting that any disruption in its availability would be considered an act of war. This is not rhetorical posturing. Pakistan is already among the top 10 countries facing severe water stress, with per capita water availability dropping from over 5,000 cubic meters in 1947 to less than 900 today.
The looming water crisis is exacerbated by climate change. Pakistan has witnessed one of the worst flood events in its history in 2022, followed by prolonged dry spells and abnormal monsoons. Glacial melt is accelerating while the monsoon pattern has become highly erratic. The paradox is chilling: floods and droughts co-exist, and both are symptoms of a climate regime spinning out of balance.
As Dr Suleri emphasized, climate change and water security are no longer separate challenges—they are inextricably linked. Our vulnerability to floods and droughts stems from structural weaknesses: poor water management, lack of storage, and fragmented governance.
While neighboring countries such as India can store water for over 200 days, Pakistan’s capacity is barely 30 days, according to PCRWR and World Bank assessments. Key infrastructure projects like the Dasu and Diamer-Bhasha dams remain incomplete, their costs escalating into billions while bureaucratic delays and political indecision slow progress. The opportunity cost of delay is not just financial; it is existential.
Moreover, agriculture—the backbone of Pakistan’s economy—relies heavily on consistent and reliable water flows. Cotton, wheat, rice, and sugarcane crops are already suffering from reduced yields and rising irrigation uncertainty. The socioeconomic consequences, especially in rural areas, are immense and disproportionately affect vulnerable communities.
India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, particularly amid heightened hostilities, weaponizes water. It also signals a departure from international norms and treaty obligations. “This is a form of hydrological coercion,” says Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan, a leading economist and academic. “The implications for regional peace and food security in South Asia are alarming.”
The international community must take note, not just for regional peace, but because water wars are no longer a dystopian fantasy. Diplomatic inertia in the face of such provocations emboldens more violations and deepens the humanitarian risks.
For Pakistan, the path forward requires three urgent actions: massive investment in water storage and management infrastructure, diplomatic pressure to restore the sanctity of the Indus treaty, and a national water policy that integrates climate resilience, efficient irrigation, and equitable distribution.
We must treat water as a strategic commodity—not just a seasonal concern. This demands political continuity, interprovincial coordination, and a long-term vision that puts national survival above short-term gains. Water is Pakistan’s red line. And in a time of increasing scarcity, it is also the line that defines our future.
