The TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project, once viewed as a cornerstone of regional cooperation and energy security, now faces significant sustainability challenges for Pakistan if India withdraws from the deal. The project, originally envisioned to supply gas from Turkmenistan’s vast reserves to energy-starved nations in South Asia, relied on the participation of all four countries to share costs and risks.
For Pakistan, the project holds immense potential to ease energy shortages and stabilize its power sector. However, without India’s involvement, the economic feasibility and strategic appeal of the TAPI pipeline for Pakistan diminish. India’s participation is essential to ensure financial viability, as its large energy market helps distribute costs among the participating nations, making the pipeline more affordable for each party involved.
India’s withdrawal would leave Pakistan with a much larger share of the costs and risks. Additionally, the absence of India would reduce the project’s long-term revenue potential, adding further doubts about the financial returns for Pakistan. Security concerns in Afghanistan and unresolved tensions between India and Pakistan have also raised questions about the project’s stability, making investors hesitant to commit.
Pakistan may need to explore alternative options to meet its energy demands, including LNG imports, renewables, and possible regional partnerships. While the TAPI project still has considerable geopolitical value, its future remains uncertain without India’s commitment, placing Pakistan in a challenging position regarding its energy security strategy.
